Timestamps What Happened Last Week – 00:11 What’s Happening Next Week – 03:13 Nick’s Update – 09:24
11 Responses
Just to make sure I understand the context: when you say “the odds of the market (SPY) going up to $555 are incredibly light”, you mean this week, it’s not a call for a short-term top or anything of the sort, right? Thanks.
Well, if it can’t go higher, it is a short term top. By definition. But it’s more sideways than a call for down. Consolidation ahead of NFP and other important events/data next month.
If I recall and understand correctly, Andy has made some less than glowing comments in recent tweets about XLK…something to the effect of ‘who would want to own that?’ as well as seeming to be a bit down on Two’s (at least from a timing perspective). I’m sure there is a mandate/strategy/timeframe difference behind this, but would be curious to hear some clarification/comments related to the disconnect between those points of view and our current 2GB allocation…or, I’ve simply misunderstood his comments, which is entirely possible.
XLK is a poorly constructed index which is forced to swap its largest holdings quarterly. My twitter comments refer to that poor construction. It’s in the weeds and refers to it being an ineffecient way of owning tech. However as it also is the easiest way of owning tech it’s perfectly fine to own short term
As it relates to two’s I am referring to a highly levered bet on two year futures not an unlevered investment on two year notes in a beta portfolio as a cash alternative. I prefer two’s to cash unlevered and have no view on levered two’s
As Andy says above, XLK might not be perfect, but it is the only widely available technology index. QQQ would be an imperfect alternative, but it’s not “tech” per se. And XLK has outperformed QQQ by a lot over a span of years. At the end of the day, you MUST own tech here, regardless of the outcome. It is the only sector that can/is most likely to drive the indices at this stage. Our 5% allocation is unlikely to hurt and could very well help outperform. You have to play the odds, however unpalatable it might be in the very short term.
Hello guys, I know you’ll be introducing a $1MM portfolio in September, which is gonna be using options more aggressively. The question is, are you gonna keep the current portfolio for long only plays and no options? I’m asking because I want to use leverage and don’t want to have to deal with options. Thank you.
11 Responses
Just to make sure I understand the context: when you say “the odds of the market (SPY) going up to $555 are incredibly light”, you mean this week, it’s not a call for a short-term top or anything of the sort, right? Thanks.
Well, if it can’t go higher, it is a short term top. By definition. But it’s more sideways than a call for down. Consolidation ahead of NFP and other important events/data next month.
If I recall and understand correctly, Andy has made some less than glowing comments in recent tweets about XLK…something to the effect of ‘who would want to own that?’ as well as seeming to be a bit down on Two’s (at least from a timing perspective). I’m sure there is a mandate/strategy/timeframe difference behind this, but would be curious to hear some clarification/comments related to the disconnect between those points of view and our current 2GB allocation…or, I’ve simply misunderstood his comments, which is entirely possible.
same here I would like to know as well.
XLK is a poorly constructed index which is forced to swap its largest holdings quarterly. My twitter comments refer to that poor construction. It’s in the weeds and refers to it being an ineffecient way of owning tech. However as it also is the easiest way of owning tech it’s perfectly fine to own short term
As it relates to two’s I am referring to a highly levered bet on two year futures not an unlevered investment on two year notes in a beta portfolio as a cash alternative. I prefer two’s to cash unlevered and have no view on levered two’s
I would also like clarification on XLK, if no one should own it, what’s our reason for owning it?
As Andy says above, XLK might not be perfect, but it is the only widely available technology index. QQQ would be an imperfect alternative, but it’s not “tech” per se. And XLK has outperformed QQQ by a lot over a span of years. At the end of the day, you MUST own tech here, regardless of the outcome. It is the only sector that can/is most likely to drive the indices at this stage. Our 5% allocation is unlikely to hurt and could very well help outperform. You have to play the odds, however unpalatable it might be in the very short term.
Understood. Appreciate the response/clarification… very helpful . Thank you both
Hello guys, I know you’ll be introducing a $1MM portfolio in September, which is gonna be using options more aggressively. The question is, are you gonna keep the current portfolio for long only plays and no options? I’m asking because I want to use leverage and don’t want to have to deal with options. Thank you.
Yes.