Timestamps
What Happened Last Week – 00:10
What’s Happening Next Week – 10:20
Nick’s Update – 21:15

22 Responses

    1. I really don’t know what to tell you. I have been told that some IRA accounts allow futures, in which case, yes. That is the primary proviso I can see.

  1. Hi Nick. A couple of questions, if I may:
    1. Why add USFR instead of a BOXX position? Is there any advantage over it? I sure have tax-withholding on dividends disadvantages on USFR.
    2. If you had no SPY at the moment, and considering the NVDA risk (lining up with weak equities seasonality), where would you leave a limit order? Somewhere in the 540-550 range which is only 2-3% down from here?
    3. I may have misunderstood what you meant last week when you said that you would post when EEM and EMXC would fill (I thought it would be an email), so I didn’t add foreign equities positions thinking you just never found an attractive price to add at. Does it make sense to add these as I get (if I get) that SPY pullback?

    Thank you very much.

    1. Hi Nick

      To piggyback on Miguel’s question 1, on mitigating non-resident withholding, in relation to the move out of STIP to USFR: if one is holding 1 and 2 yr treasury notes directly rather than via ETFs then the action would be to take those profits and move to 1-3 month bills, or BOXX?. Thanks.

      1. Again, I know absolutely sod all about tax. The idea is that the cutting cycle is slower than already implied and that you get more income at the very short end, over time.

    2. I have no advice on tax matters. If you find Boxx better, do that. USFR should be better if the cutting cycle is slower than market already discounts, which is my guess.

      1. I would add all the emerging markets at same time as that limit price in Japan. I would not be adding SPY at all, I would be looking at international equities from now on. But I may change my mind after NVDA 🙂

        1. The tax part was just an observation on the side, I was just wondering if there was an actual advantage, excluding that, of USFR over BOXX.

          And yes, that concern on the video about NVDA earnings really resonated with me. I guess that could offer a decent pullback, though. I’ll be adding Japan together all other EM then. Equities are generally correlated anyway.

          Thanks, Nick! And congratulations on the 2GB expansion/debut!

          1. USFR should pay more interest over time if the speed of cuts is slower than market has priced.

      1. Hi Adrian, here are ETFs domiciled in Ireland that I use as alternatives for those three: IEI -> TRS5; TIP -> IDTP; SLQD -> SDIG. Be careful because there are assets that use the same tickers. Also, there are variants depending on the currency and exchange.

          1. I have no idea and for my own portfolio I don’t really care. I have no problem with capital gains, it’s tax withholding on dividends being chopped in half that makes me interested in those bonds ETFs domiciled in Ireland, and I might be holding those for quite a while. Dividends are not very significant for SPY and I open and close SPY positions too often for it to matter.

  2. I love your proactivity and creativity during these transitional phases in markets. Awesome stuff.

    Can you please share your view on EUR weakness? As a European investor I’ve been denominating my portfolio in 1/2 to 2/3rds in USD and the remainder in EUR. Do you think the EUR has a similar outlook as USD in terms of inflation being beat, economy slowing and therefore the currency being likely to depreciate? Trying to determine whether I can think of USD and EUR as having largely the same risk profile in the context of needing to diversify into emerging market currencies.

    Also worth noting: for those of you who are getting 2GB Squared and are Mac users, there’s a new desktop application by IBKR which is a bit more user-friendly than the one Nick showed, but significantly better than their browser web application. You may want to check it out.

    1. EUR companies do not have same benefits from weaker $ as emerging ones, as they don’t borrow in USD. My own view is that USD will remain weak over a few months and that 1.20 trades before 1.00 EURUSD.

    2. The Mac version of the Client Portal and TWS is certainly better looking, but it’s still very basic and it’s a beta. They still have a lot of features to implement. I tried it a couple of times (a couple of versions), and just defaulted to the Client Portal (Web + iOS).

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