Time Stamps
What Happened Last Week – 00:27
What’s Happening Next Week – 02:24
Nick’s Update – 16:15
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Time Stamps
What Happened Last Week – 00:27
What’s Happening Next Week – 02:24
Nick’s Update – 16:15
16 Responses
Good afternoon,
Do you feel the last month of TLT jump was related to large funds rebalancing given the value loss in bonds vs equities, and that run is now over, or close to over and rates will go back up (specifically long duration)? I noticed you are not shorting TLT, but i’m considering that as a move and wondering your opinion?
Yes, that is why we got rid of our TLT exposure. This is a long only portfolio, so you will never see us short anything at all. However, the fact that we got rid of our long should give you a hint as to how we feel about its current price. Personally, I think that downside is limited to 2-3% and would rather hold cash to buy a different part of the YC, as discussed in this episode.
Snappy content this week gents, appreciate it.
How would you allocate to equities if you’re underexposed vs. the 2GB portfolio currently? Wait until bonds get a hit and add some during that time? It’s unclear to me what near term catalyst exists to drag equity prices lower. Longer term it could be a QRA announcement in Jan or March ’24?
Yes, that is about as good as you can do…
Got it, thanks.
Nick, In the UK my trading platform wont allow Treasury purchases as you recommend, but ETFs are fully available. Would the iShares ETF covering the belly of the curve be a reasonable alternative?
Absolutely, should make very little difference.
Is the Limit order to sell SHY @ $81.85 still open, or is it best to close it?
I have closed it, no point….
Was wondering this myself. Thanks for asking.
To make it clear for the future, so there is no ambiguity: if it’s not on the Order Entry Tab in the excel file, it’s not live anymore. As simple as that. We won’t trade anything without first putting it on there or emailing.
in some of my accounts I am restricted from trading GSG. can you recommend a comparable alternative?
DBC should do.
Hi Nick. I am looking to buy those two 4-5y bonds, and regarding the Oct’28 one, I missed the entry at 4.3% on the 11th. Is this still attractive to lock in at 3.9? Perhaps I’m better off leaving an order for a 4.1% retest. What do you think? Thanks.
You are right, better to wait. I doubt you won’t get an opportunity.
Thanks, Nick, I will do that. Besides, it’s earning 5ish in t-bills in the meantime, so it won’t be losing sleep over it. Have a great weekend!